🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.