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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."